GTES
Gates Industrial Corporation LtAfter hours25.96−0.27 −1.03%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 25.96 0.00%
Open
26.08
Prev close
26.23
Day range
25.2826.34
52-week range
20.8830.34
Volume
2.77M1.50×
Mkt cap
6.57B
P/E ttm
18.41
Fwd P/E
13.54
EPS ttm
1.41
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 30, 2026
From 52w high
−14.44%
GTES market-implied price distribution
GTES Price at Expiry
20 OTM quotes · ATM IV 41.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 25.96
Expected price
26.27
forward 26.03
68% range
23–29
−12.0% / +12.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 14.52 | −44.1% |
| 16% | 22.84 | −12.0% |
| 25% | 24.09 | −7.2% |
| 50% (median) | 26.03 | +0.3% |
| 75% | 27.98 | +7.8% |
| 84% | 29.27 | +12.8% |
| 95% | 38.29 | +47.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (27.26) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (28.56) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (24.66) | 31% |
| Down 10% or more (23.36) | 19% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 19%, 0.8× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.