GSL
Global Ship Lease Inc NewOpen45.05−0.17 −0.38%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 13:34 ET · 20m delay
Open
45.65
Prev close
45.22
Day range
44.7545.59
52-week range
27.2846.57
Volume
90.28K0.28×
Mkt cap
—
P/E ttm
4.40
Fwd P/E
5.08
EPS ttm
10.24
Div yield
5.53%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−3.26%
GSL market-implied price distribution
GSL Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 30.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 45.05
Expected price
44.97
forward 45.10
68% range
41–49
−9.7% / +9.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 36.55 | −18.9% |
| 16% | 40.68 | −9.7% |
| 25% | 42.29 | −6.1% |
| 50% (median) | 45.27 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 47.98 | +6.5% |
| 84% | 49.23 | +9.3% |
| 95% | 51.79 | +15.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (47.30) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (49.56) | 14% |
| Down 5% or more (42.80) | 29% |
| Down 10% or more (40.55) | 15% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 15%, 1.0× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.