GRAL
GRAIL, Inc.Open140.38+3.01 +2.19%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 14:50 ET · 15m delay
Open
137.64
Prev close
137.37
Day range
135.24142.17
52-week range
41.50166.48
Volume
397.08K0.42×
Mkt cap
6.27B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-17.02
EPS ttm
-9.70
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−15.68%
GRAL market-implied price distribution
GRAL Price at Expiry
28 OTM quotes · ATM IV 91.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 140.38
Expected price
140.47
forward 141.21
68% range
101–179
−28.2% / +27.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 72.02 | −48.7% |
| 16% | 100.72 | −28.2% |
| 25% | 112.69 | −19.7% |
| 50% (median) | 137.45 | −2.1% |
| 75% | 164.41 | +17.1% |
| 84% | 179.11 | +27.6% |
| 95% | 218.62 | +55.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (147.40) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (154.42) | 33% |
| Down 5% or more (133.36) | 46% |
| Down 10% or more (126.34) | 38% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 38%, 0.9× the 41% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.