GPIX
Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Premium IPre-market56.43−0.01 −0.02%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 56.50 +0.13%
Open
56.54
Prev close
56.44
Day range
56.3756.56
52-week range
48.4656.74
Volume
1.04M0.90×
P/E ttm
24.61
EPS ttm
2.29
Div yield
0.96%
From 52w high
−0.54%
GPIX market-implied price distribution
GPIX Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 9.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 56.43
Expected price
55.81
forward 56.30
68% range
54–58
−4.2% / +2.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 49.96 | −11.5% |
| 16% | 54.08 | −4.2% |
| 25% | 55.26 | −2.1% |
| 50% (median) | 56.40 | −0.0% |
| 75% | 57.25 | +1.5% |
| 84% | 57.71 | +2.3% |
| 95% | 59.09 | +4.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (59.25) | 4.2% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (62.07) | 0.1% |
| Down 5% or more (53.61) | 14% |
| Down 10% or more (50.79) | 7.5% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 7.5%, 239.2× the 0.0% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.