Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 106.93 | −27.4% |
| 16% | 122.57 | −16.8% |
| 25% | 129.48 | −12.1% |
| 50% (median) | 144.35 | −2.0% |
| 75% | 161.24 | +9.5% |
| 84% | 170.76 | +15.9% |
| 95% | 196.87 | +33.7% |
| Up 5% or more (154.64) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (162.01) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (139.92) | 42% |
| Down 10% or more (132.55) | 30% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 30%, 1.0× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.