Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
23.14
−40.1%
16%
29.05
−24.8%
25%
31.64
−18.0%
50% (median)
37.09
−3.9%
75%
43.07
+11.6%
84%
46.34
+20.0%
95%
54.89
+42.2%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (40.54)
34%
Up 10% or more (42.47)
27%
Down 5% or more (36.68)
48%
Down 10% or more (34.75)
39%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 39%, 1.0× the 41% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.