Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
60.09
−16.7%
16%
65.40
−9.3%
25%
67.49
−6.4%
50% (median)
71.47
−0.9%
75%
75.69
+4.9%
84%
78.17
+8.4%
95%
87.67
+21.5%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (75.75)
25%
Up 10% or more (79.35)
13%
Down 5% or more (68.53)
31%
Down 10% or more (64.93)
14%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 14%, 0.7× the 21% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.