GGD.TO
GOGOLD RESOURCES INCClosedGGD.TO discounted cash flow valuation
GGD.TO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 12.6% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against -2.0% in this model.
Model: -2.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 13.85% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CAD 411.97M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (32% of EV) | CAD 194.58M |
| Enterprise value | CAD 606.55M |
| + Cash & investments | CAD 403.58M |
| − Total debt | −CAD 1.29M |
| Equity value | CAD 1.01B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 433.52M |
| Value per share | CAD 2.33 |
| Market cap | CAD 1.66B |
USD statements converted at 1.421 CAD.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 1.73 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 13.86% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 12.00% |
| Tax rate | 27.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 0.1% |
| WACC | 13.85% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.85% | 2.52 | 2.56 | 2.61 | 2.66 | 2.72 |
| 12.85% | 2.38 | 2.42 | 2.45 | 2.49 | 2.54 |
| 13.85% | 2.27 | 2.30 | 2.33 | 2.36 | 2.39 |
| 14.85% | 2.18 | 2.20 | 2.22 | 2.25 | 2.27 |
| 15.85% | 2.09 | 2.11 | 2.13 | 2.15 | 2.17 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CAD 84.26M | — | — |
| Year 1 | -2.0% | CAD 82.57M | 0.878 | CAD 72.53M |
| Year 2 | -2.0% | CAD 80.92M | 0.771 | CAD 62.43M |
| Year 3 | -2.0% | CAD 79.30M | 0.678 | CAD 53.74M |
| Year 4 | -2.0% | CAD 77.72M | 0.595 | CAD 46.26M |
| Year 5 | -2.0% | CAD 76.16M | 0.523 | CAD 39.82M |
| Year 6 | -1.1% | CAD 75.32M | 0.459 | CAD 34.59M |
| Year 7 | -0.2% | CAD 75.17M | 0.403 | CAD 30.32M |
| Year 8 | 0.7% | CAD 75.70M | 0.354 | CAD 26.82M |
| Year 9 | 1.6% | CAD 76.91M | 0.311 | CAD 23.93M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CAD 78.83M | 0.273 | CAD 21.55M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.