Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
14.82
−37.9%
16%
20.34
−14.9%
25%
21.47
−10.1%
50% (median)
23.49
−1.7%
75%
25.71
+7.6%
84%
27.12
+13.5%
95%
35.17
+47.2%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (25.08)
31%
Up 10% or more (26.28)
21%
Down 5% or more (22.70)
39%
Down 10% or more (21.50)
25%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 0.9× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.