GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETFPre-market88.53−0.75 −0.84%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ETPre-market 89.46 +1.02%
Open
88.23
Prev close
89.28
Day range
87.9388.79
52-week range
68.13117.18
Volume
10.13M0.47×
P/E ttm
14.05
EPS ttm
6.30
Div yield
0.72%
From 52w high
−24.45%
GDX market-implied price distribution
GDX Price at Expiry
38 OTM quotes · ATM IV 44.7%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 88.53
Expected price
88.95
forward 88.95
68% range
78–100
−12.4% / +13.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 70.51 | −20.4% |
| 16% | 77.59 | −12.4% |
| 25% | 81.17 | −8.3% |
| 50% (median) | 88.84 | +0.4% |
| 75% | 96.61 | +9.1% |
| 84% | 100.30 | +13.3% |
| 95% | 107.75 | +21.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (92.96) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (97.38) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (84.10) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (79.68) | 21% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 21%, 1.0× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.