GAP
Gap, Inc. (The)Open22.89+0.11 +0.48%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:51 ET · 20m delay
Open
23.18
Prev close
22.78
Day range
22.6823.53
52-week range
18.1129.36
Volume
2.01M0.29×
Mkt cap
8.04B
P/E ttm
6.89
Fwd P/E
8.69
EPS ttm
3.32
Div yield
3.07%
Earnings
Aug 27, 2026
From 52w high
−22.04%
GAP market-implied price distribution
GAP Price at Expiry
17 OTM quotes · ATM IV 37.9%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 22.92
Expected price
23.02
forward 22.98
68% range
20–25
−11.5% / +10.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 17.82 | −22.2% |
| 16% | 20.29 | −11.5% |
| 25% | 21.28 | −7.1% |
| 50% (median) | 22.85 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 24.41 | +6.5% |
| 84% | 25.33 | +10.6% |
| 95% | 29.79 | +30.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (24.06) | 30% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (25.21) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (21.77) | 32% |
| Down 10% or more (20.62) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 1.0× the 18% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.