Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
41.80
−22.3%
16%
48.42
−10.0%
25%
51.37
−4.5%
50% (median)
55.57
+3.3%
75%
58.90
+9.5%
84%
60.43
+12.3%
95%
63.80
+18.6%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (56.50)
43%
Up 10% or more (59.19)
23%
Down 5% or more (51.12)
24%
Down 10% or more (48.43)
16%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 16%, 1.1× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.