FTC
First Trust Large Cap Growth AlOpen178.97−0.90 −0.50%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 12:25 ET · 15m delay
Open
178.89
Prev close
179.88
Day range
178.23179.14
52-week range
147.94194.18
Volume
4.93K0.34×
P/E ttm
30.11
EPS ttm
5.94
Div yield
0.11%
From 52w high
−7.83%
FTC market-implied price distribution
FTC Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 123.3%
Days to expiry
3
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
P(finish above spot)
59%
spot 178.97
Expected price
176.04
forward 179.03
68% range
154–195
−14.2% / +9.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 126.36 | −29.4% |
| 16% | 153.60 | −14.2% |
| 25% | 167.56 | −6.4% |
| 50% (median) | 183.11 | +2.3% |
| 75% | 192.22 | +7.4% |
| 84% | 195.46 | +9.2% |
| 95% | 200.70 | +12.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (187.92) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (196.87) | 12% |
| Down 5% or more (170.02) | 28% |
| Down 10% or more (161.07) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 1.0× the 19% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.