FROG
JFrog Ltd.Open100.64+1.62 +1.63%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 14:51 ET · 15m delay
Open
98.77
Prev close
99.02
Day range
98.00103.39
52-week range
34.05105.76
Volume
948.11K0.48×
Mkt cap
12.41B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
87.89
EPS ttm
-0.3800
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−4.85%
FROG market-implied price distribution
FROG Price at Expiry
22 OTM quotes · ATM IV 79.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 100.64
Expected price
101.74
forward 101.93
68% range
76–127
−24.3% / +26.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 61.17 | −39.2% |
| 16% | 76.22 | −24.3% |
| 25% | 83.45 | −17.1% |
| 50% (median) | 99.30 | −1.3% |
| 75% | 117.11 | +16.4% |
| 84% | 126.75 | +26.0% |
| 95% | 151.05 | +50.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (105.67) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (110.70) | 33% |
| Down 5% or more (95.60) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (90.57) | 36% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 36%, 1.0× the 37% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.