FOR
Forestar Group IncPre-market25.01−0.64 −2.50%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
25.52
Prev close
25.65
Day range
25.0125.71
52-week range
22.8132.06
Volume
214.15K1.45×
Mkt cap
1.28B
P/E ttm
7.51
Fwd P/E
8.77
EPS ttm
3.33
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−21.99%
FOR market-implied price distribution
FOR Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 52.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
66%
spot 25.01
Expected price
27.07
forward 26.79
68% range
22–31
−13.3% / +22.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 18.74 | −25.1% |
| 16% | 21.67 | −13.3% |
| 25% | 23.75 | −5.1% |
| 50% (median) | 26.67 | +6.6% |
| 75% | 29.13 | +16.5% |
| 84% | 30.51 | +22.0% |
| 95% | 36.40 | +45.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (26.26) | 54% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (27.51) | 41% |
| Down 5% or more (23.76) | 25% |
| Down 10% or more (22.51) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 1.1× the 18% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.