FLG
Flagstar Bank, N.A.After hours11.21−0.10 −0.88%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 11.21 0.00%
Open
11.37
Prev close
11.31
Day range
11.1111.43
52-week range
10.5715.44
Volume
4.10M0.87×
Mkt cap
4.65B
P/E ttm
373.67
Fwd P/E
9.54
EPS ttm
0.0300
Div yield
0.35%
Earnings
Oct 23, 2026
From 52w high
−27.40%
FLG market-implied price distribution
FLG Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 37.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 11.21
Expected price
11.22
forward 11.28
68% range
10–12
−12.3% / +10.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.46 | −24.5% |
| 16% | 9.83 | −12.3% |
| 25% | 10.35 | −7.7% |
| 50% (median) | 11.17 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 11.95 | +6.6% |
| 84% | 12.38 | +10.5% |
| 95% | 13.64 | +21.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (11.77) | 30% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (12.33) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (10.65) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (10.09) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 1.0× the 20% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.