FIX
Comfort Systems USA, Inc.Pre-market1,638.05−77.64 −4.53%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:01 ET · 20m delayPre-market 1,626.20 −0.72%
Open
1,700.11
Prev close
1,715.69
Day range
1,631.991,710.00
52-week range
770.472,073.99
Volume
266.73K0.67×
Mkt cap
57.65B
P/E ttm
38.48
Fwd P/E
27.22
EPS ttm
42.57
Div yield
0.22%
Earnings
Jul 23, 2026
From 52w high
−21.02%
FIX market-implied price distribution
FIX Price at Expiry
93 OTM quotes · ATM IV 69.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
56%
spot 1,638.05
Expected price
1,707.03
forward 1,708.58
68% range
1,354–2,056
−17.4% / +25.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 1,120.94 | −31.6% |
| 16% | 1,353.64 | −17.4% |
| 25% | 1,461.40 | −10.8% |
| 50% (median) | 1,688.48 | +3.1% |
| 75% | 1,930.39 | +17.8% |
| 84% | 2,056.43 | +25.5% |
| 95% | 2,355.18 | +43.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (1,719.95) | 46% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (1,801.86) | 37% |
| Down 5% or more (1,556.15) | 35% |
| Down 10% or more (1,474.25) | 26% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 0.9× the 29% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.