FIVE
Five Below, Inc.Open216.05+2.47 +1.16%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 10:19 ET · 15m delay
Open
216.40
Prev close
213.58
Day range
215.11220.82
52-week range
143.02263.88
Volume
79.77K0.07×
Mkt cap
11.89B
P/E ttm
19.36
Fwd P/E
19.53
EPS ttm
11.16
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Sep 2, 2026
From 52w high
−18.13%
FIVE market-implied price distribution
FIVE Price at Expiry
36 OTM quotes · ATM IV 40.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 216.05
Expected price
221.37
forward 218.55
68% range
195–243
−9.6% / +12.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 176.46 | −18.3% |
| 16% | 195.22 | −9.6% |
| 25% | 203.00 | −6.0% |
| 50% (median) | 218.25 | +1.0% |
| 75% | 234.31 | +8.5% |
| 84% | 243.28 | +12.6% |
| 95% | 270.05 | +25.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (226.85) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (237.66) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (205.25) | 28% |
| Down 10% or more (194.45) | 15% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 15%, 0.7× the 21% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.