FIGR
Figure Technology Solutions, InAfter hours27.25−1.21 −4.25%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 27.31 +0.22%
Open
28.11
Prev close
28.46
Day range
26.7328.31
52-week range
24.1178.00
Volume
5.03M1.18×
Mkt cap
6.11B
P/E ttm
29.30
Fwd P/E
14.42
EPS ttm
0.9300
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 13, 2026
From 52w high
−65.06%
FIGR market-implied price distribution
FIGR Price at Expiry
19 OTM quotes · ATM IV 83.7%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 27.25
Expected price
27.51
forward 27.44
68% range
21–34
−23.0% / +24.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 17.61 | −35.4% |
| 16% | 20.98 | −23.0% |
| 25% | 22.68 | −16.8% |
| 50% (median) | 26.61 | −2.4% |
| 75% | 31.27 | +14.8% |
| 84% | 33.89 | +24.4% |
| 95% | 40.78 | +49.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (28.61) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (29.98) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (25.89) | 45% |
| Down 10% or more (24.53) | 36% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 36%, 1.0× the 37% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.