FICO
Fair Isaac CorporationClosed740.00+72.42 +10.85%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 743.90 +0.53%
Open
674.00
Prev close
667.58
Day range
666.16741.51
52-week range
586.051,858.91
Volume
1.96M3.12×
Mkt cap
15.98B
P/E ttm
23.75
Fwd P/E
14.80
EPS ttm
31.16
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Jul 29, 2026
From 52w high
−60.19%
FICO market-implied price distribution
FICO Price at Expiry
91 OTM quotes · ATM IV 68.8%
Days to expiry
39
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
40%
spot 740.00
Expected price
721.38
forward 719.33
68% range
569–865
−23.2% / +16.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 472.49 | −36.2% |
| 16% | 568.69 | −23.2% |
| 25% | 611.86 | −17.3% |
| 50% (median) | 703.59 | −4.9% |
| 75% | 806.80 | +9.0% |
| 84% | 864.75 | +16.9% |
| 95% | 1,022.99 | +38.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (777.00) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (814.00) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (703.00) | 50% |
| Down 10% or more (666.00) | 39% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 39%, 1.0× the 41% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.