FHN
First Horizon CorporationPre-market23.06−0.02 −0.09%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:02 ET · 20m delayPre-market 23.16 +0.43%
Open
23.10
Prev close
23.08
Day range
23.0123.25
52-week range
19.8026.56
Volume
8.32M1.54×
Mkt cap
10.93B
P/E ttm
11.09
Fwd P/E
9.94
EPS ttm
2.08
Div yield
2.95%
Earnings
Oct 15, 2026
From 52w high
−13.18%
FHN market-implied price distribution
FHN Price at Expiry
18 OTM quotes · ATM IV 27.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
63%
spot 23.06
Expected price
23.32
forward 23.51
68% range
21–25
−6.8% / +10.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 15.54 | −32.6% |
| 16% | 21.49 | −6.8% |
| 25% | 22.33 | −3.2% |
| 50% (median) | 23.63 | +2.5% |
| 75% | 24.80 | +7.5% |
| 84% | 25.41 | +10.2% |
| 95% | 27.30 | +18.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (24.21) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (25.37) | 16% |
| Down 5% or more (21.91) | 20% |
| Down 10% or more (20.75) | 11% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 11%, 1.3× the 8.5% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.