FFIV
F5, Inc.Pre-market473.49−6.34 −1.32%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
482.00
Prev close
479.83
Day range
470.83483.30
52-week range
223.76483.30
Volume
382.25K0.65×
Mkt cap
26.81B
P/E ttm
37.22
Fwd P/E
26.19
EPS ttm
12.72
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
From 52w high
−2.03%
FFIV market-implied price distribution
FFIV Price at Expiry
37 OTM quotes · ATM IV 51.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 473.49
Expected price
483.30
forward 475.30
68% range
416–547
−12.2% / +15.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 355.22 | −25.0% |
| 16% | 415.71 | −12.2% |
| 25% | 438.02 | −7.5% |
| 50% (median) | 479.43 | +1.3% |
| 75% | 522.10 | +10.3% |
| 84% | 547.19 | +15.6% |
| 95% | 649.12 | +37.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (497.16) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (520.84) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (449.82) | 31% |
| Down 10% or more (426.14) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 0.7× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.