FER
Ferrovial N.V.Closed50.56+0.22 +0.44%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 50.61 +0.10%
Open
50.57
Prev close
50.34
Day range
50.0450.73
52-week range
49.4374.79
Volume
1.32M0.83×
Mkt cap
36.39B
P/E ttm
27.78
Fwd P/E
38.26
EPS ttm
1.82
Div yield
2.55%
Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
From 52w high
−32.40%
FER market-implied price distribution
FER Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 20.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 50.56
Expected price
50.24
forward 50.77
68% range
48–53
−6.0% / +4.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 44.32 | −12.3% |
| 16% | 47.52 | −6.0% |
| 25% | 48.44 | −4.2% |
| 50% (median) | 50.10 | −0.9% |
| 75% | 51.88 | +2.6% |
| 84% | 52.91 | +4.6% |
| 95% | 55.87 | +10.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (53.09) | 15% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (55.62) | 5.5% |
| Down 5% or more (48.03) | 20% |
| Down 10% or more (45.50) | 7.6% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 7.6%, 1.6× the 4.7% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.