FDX
FedEx CorporationOpen291.41−0.82 −0.28%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:19 ET · 20m delay
Open
293.21
Prev close
292.23
Day range
290.71294.09
52-week range
182.93345.37
Volume
101.37K0.07×
Mkt cap
68.97B
P/E ttm
15.71
Fwd P/E
14.07
EPS ttm
18.55
Div yield
1.67%
Earnings
Oct 28, 2026
From 52w high
−15.62%
FDX market-implied price distribution
FDX Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 38.7%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 291.52
Expected price
292.34
forward 293.32
68% range
259–325
−11.1% / +11.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 233.21 | −20.0% |
| 16% | 259.04 | −11.1% |
| 25% | 270.63 | −7.2% |
| 50% (median) | 292.09 | +0.2% |
| 75% | 313.46 | +7.5% |
| 84% | 324.71 | +11.4% |
| 95% | 351.90 | +20.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (306.10) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (320.67) | 19% |
| Down 5% or more (276.94) | 31% |
| Down 10% or more (262.37) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 1.0× the 18% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.