FCEL
FuelCell Energy, Inc.Open15.15−1.22 −7.45%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 14:52 ET · 15m delay
Open
15.97
Prev close
16.37
Day range
14.9816.17
52-week range
5.7137.88
Volume
5.38M0.67×
Mkt cap
1.21B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-14.85
EPS ttm
-2.76
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Sep 2, 2026
From 52w high
−60.01%
FCEL market-implied price distribution
FCEL Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 95.8%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 15.15
Expected price
15.41
forward 15.27
68% range
11–19
−25.5% / +26.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 9.19 | −39.4% |
| 16% | 11.28 | −25.5% |
| 25% | 12.34 | −18.6% |
| 50% (median) | 14.67 | −3.2% |
| 75% | 17.49 | +15.4% |
| 84% | 19.20 | +26.7% |
| 95% | 24.77 | +63.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (15.91) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (16.67) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (14.39) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (13.64) | 39% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 39%, 1.0× the 40% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.