FBT
First Trust Amex Biotech Index Closed259.65−4.25 −1.61%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ETAfter hours 259.65 0.00%
Open
263.64
Prev close
263.90
Day range
259.49262.37
52-week range
184.59275.23
Volume
44.94K0.58×
P/E ttm
28.26
EPS ttm
9.19
Div yield
0.00%
From 52w high
−5.66%
FBT market-implied price distribution
FBT Price at Expiry
37 OTM quotes · ATM IV 43.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
55%
spot 259.65
Expected price
263.28
forward 262.71
68% range
235–295
−9.3% / +13.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 193.51 | −25.5% |
| 16% | 235.48 | −9.3% |
| 25% | 245.34 | −5.5% |
| 50% (median) | 262.55 | +1.1% |
| 75% | 281.47 | +8.4% |
| 84% | 294.76 | +13.5% |
| 95% | 337.58 | +30.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (272.63) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (285.62) | 22% |
| Down 5% or more (246.67) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (233.68) | 15% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 15%, 0.7× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.