FBL
GraniteShares 2x Long META DailClosed32.67−2.24 −6.42%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 32.06 −1.87%
Open
34.66
Prev close
34.91
Day range
32.3534.87
52-week range
17.4345.83
Volume
486.92K0.47×
Div yield
0.00%
From 52w high
−28.71%
FBL market-implied price distribution
FBL Price at Expiry
29 OTM quotes · ATM IV 84.3%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 32.67
Expected price
32.75
forward 32.74
68% range
24–41
−25.8% / +24.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 18.21 | −44.3% |
| 16% | 24.24 | −25.8% |
| 25% | 26.68 | −18.3% |
| 50% (median) | 31.72 | −2.9% |
| 75% | 37.42 | +14.5% |
| 84% | 40.73 | +24.7% |
| 95% | 51.37 | +57.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (34.30) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (35.94) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (31.04) | 46% |
| Down 10% or more (29.40) | 38% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 38%, 1.0× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.