FAST
Fastenal CompanyPre-market51.49+0.74 +1.46%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 51.63 +0.27%
Open
51.00
Prev close
50.75
Day range
50.8551.83
52-week range
38.9752.92
Volume
6.19M0.84×
Mkt cap
59.08B
P/E ttm
44.01
Fwd P/E
36.78
EPS ttm
1.17
Div yield
1.86%
Earnings
Oct 14, 2026
From 52w high
−2.70%
FAST market-implied price distribution
FAST Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 30.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 51.49
Expected price
51.81
forward 51.33
68% range
47–56
−8.4% / +8.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 43.44 | −15.6% |
| 16% | 47.19 | −8.4% |
| 25% | 48.68 | −5.4% |
| 50% (median) | 51.54 | +0.1% |
| 75% | 54.45 | +5.8% |
| 84% | 56.08 | +8.9% |
| 95% | 61.47 | +19.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (54.06) | 28% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (56.64) | 14% |
| Down 5% or more (48.92) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (46.34) | 12% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 12%, 0.7× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.