EXR
Extra Space Storage IncPre-market134.05−0.60 −0.45%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:01 ET · 20m delay
Open
134.85
Prev close
134.65
Day range
133.06135.26
52-week range
125.71158.88
Volume
1.32M1.02×
Mkt cap
29.59B
P/E ttm
29.59
Fwd P/E
27.77
EPS ttm
4.53
Div yield
4.83%
Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
From 52w high
−15.63%
EXR market-implied price distribution
EXR Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 24.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
56%
spot 134.05
Expected price
133.79
forward 134.73
68% range
123–145
−8.0% / +8.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 104.20 | −22.3% |
| 16% | 123.38 | −8.0% |
| 25% | 128.02 | −4.5% |
| 50% (median) | 135.52 | +1.1% |
| 75% | 141.89 | +5.8% |
| 84% | 144.87 | +8.1% |
| 95% | 151.59 | +13.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (140.75) | 29% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (147.46) | 10% |
| Down 5% or more (127.35) | 23% |
| Down 10% or more (120.65) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 1.5× the 8.4% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.