EXPD
Expeditors International of WasOpen193.58+0.17 +0.09%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:16 ET · 20m delay
Open
193.87
Prev close
193.41
Day range
193.27194.51
52-week range
113.17195.73
Volume
140.06K0.13×
Mkt cap
25.16B
P/E ttm
28.18
Fwd P/E
23.96
EPS ttm
6.87
Div yield
0.84%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−1.10%
EXPD market-implied price distribution
EXPD Price at Expiry
25 OTM quotes · ATM IV 30.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
56%
spot 193.58
Expected price
196.74
forward 194.44
68% range
180–213
−6.9% / +9.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 166.34 | −14.1% |
| 16% | 180.18 | −6.9% |
| 25% | 185.55 | −4.1% |
| 50% (median) | 195.67 | +1.1% |
| 75% | 206.25 | +6.5% |
| 84% | 212.58 | +9.8% |
| 95% | 235.11 | +21.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (203.26) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (212.94) | 16% |
| Down 5% or more (183.90) | 22% |
| Down 10% or more (174.22) | 9.6% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 9.6%, 0.7× the 14% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.