EXP
Eagle Materials IncPre-market163.61−1.09 −0.66%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 164.50 +0.54%
Open
164.29
Prev close
164.70
Day range
163.51166.38
52-week range
163.51245.53
Volume
360.90K0.80×
Mkt cap
5.02B
P/E ttm
12.89
Fwd P/E
11.98
EPS ttm
12.69
Div yield
0.61%
Earnings
Jul 29, 2026
From 52w high
−33.36%
EXP market-implied price distribution
EXP Price at Expiry
26 OTM quotes · ATM IV 39.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
62%
spot 163.61
Expected price
171.61
forward 172.37
68% range
146–194
−10.6% / +18.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 105.73 | −35.4% |
| 16% | 146.24 | −10.6% |
| 25% | 155.24 | −5.1% |
| 50% (median) | 170.07 | +3.9% |
| 75% | 185.03 | +13.1% |
| 84% | 193.80 | +18.4% |
| 95% | 225.86 | +38.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (171.79) | 47% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (179.97) | 32% |
| Down 5% or more (155.43) | 25% |
| Down 10% or more (147.25) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 1.4× the 12% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.