EWZS
iShares MSCI Brazil Small-Cap EClosed16.31−0.79 −4.62%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 16.20 −0.67%
Open
16.58
Prev close
17.10
Day range
16.3116.75
52-week range
11.7017.15
Volume
2.17M4.22×
P/E ttm
11.74
EPS ttm
1.39
Div yield
3.85%
From 52w high
−4.90%
EWZS market-implied price distribution
EWZS Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 51.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
55%
spot 16.31
Expected price
16.41
forward 16.61
68% range
13–19
−17.4% / +17.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 10.12 | −38.0% |
| 16% | 13.46 | −17.4% |
| 25% | 14.68 | −10.0% |
| 50% (median) | 16.61 | +1.8% |
| 75% | 18.34 | +12.4% |
| 84% | 19.21 | +17.8% |
| 95% | 21.49 | +31.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (17.13) | 42% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (17.94) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (15.49) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (14.68) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 1.0× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.