EWU
iShares MSCIClosed46.82+0.12 +0.26%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ETAfter hours 46.82 0.00%
Open
47.17
Prev close
46.70
Day range
46.7347.18
52-week range
41.3349.39
Volume
701.02K0.65×
P/E ttm
16.63
EPS ttm
2.81
Div yield
3.22%
From 52w high
−5.20%
EWU market-implied price distribution
EWU Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 20.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
60%
spot 46.82
Expected price
46.90
forward 47.02
68% range
44–49
−5.5% / +5.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 41.22 | −12.0% |
| 16% | 44.23 | −5.5% |
| 25% | 45.46 | −2.9% |
| 50% (median) | 47.46 | +1.4% |
| 75% | 48.93 | +4.5% |
| 84% | 49.48 | +5.7% |
| 95% | 50.12 | +7.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (49.16) | 21% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (51.50) | 1.0% |
| Down 5% or more (44.48) | 18% |
| Down 10% or more (42.14) | 7.8% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 7.8%, 1.7× the 4.7% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.