EWT
iShares MSCI Taiwan ETFClosed113.46−0.81 −0.71%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ETAfter hours 113.00 −0.41%
Open
112.53
Prev close
114.27
Day range
112.40113.51
52-week range
59.96118.47
Volume
5.97M1.28×
P/E ttm
28.26
EPS ttm
4.02
Div yield
0.88%
From 52w high
−4.23%
EWT market-implied price distribution
EWT Price at Expiry
32 OTM quotes · ATM IV 25.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 113.46
Expected price
113.65
forward 114.05
68% range
102–125
−10.0% / +10.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 87.48 | −22.9% |
| 16% | 102.09 | −10.0% |
| 25% | 106.43 | −6.2% |
| 50% (median) | 113.79 | +0.3% |
| 75% | 121.07 | +6.7% |
| 84% | 125.21 | +10.4% |
| 95% | 138.01 | +21.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (119.13) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (124.81) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (107.79) | 29% |
| Down 10% or more (102.11) | 16% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 16%, 1.7× the 9.3% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.