ESS
Essex Property Trust, Inc.Open270.21−0.19 −0.07%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 11:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
272.94
Prev close
270.39
Day range
268.07273.16
52-week range
238.46303.35
Volume
65.82K0.13×
Mkt cap
18.63B
P/E ttm
42.02
Fwd P/E
43.37
EPS ttm
6.43
Div yield
3.83%
Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
From 52w high
−10.93%
ESS market-implied price distribution
ESS Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 22.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 270.21
Expected price
269.69
forward 271.36
68% range
251–290
−7.1% / +7.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 216.38 | −19.9% |
| 16% | 251.08 | −7.1% |
| 25% | 259.03 | −4.1% |
| 50% (median) | 271.82 | +0.6% |
| 75% | 283.63 | +5.0% |
| 84% | 289.98 | +7.3% |
| 95% | 307.16 | +13.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (283.72) | 25% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (297.23) | 9.8% |
| Down 5% or more (256.69) | 22% |
| Down 10% or more (243.18) | 11% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 11%, 1.5× the 7.3% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.