EROC
ERock, Inc.After hours11.56−0.16 −1.37%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 11.55 −0.09%
Open
11.38
Prev close
11.72
Day range
11.0611.93
52-week range
8.8820.70
Volume
3.41M1.35×
Mkt cap
556.89M
P/E ttm
41.29
Fwd P/E
22.77
EPS ttm
0.2800
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 11, 2026
From 52w high
−44.15%
EROC market-implied price distribution
EROC Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 90.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
42%
spot 11.56
Expected price
11.61
forward 11.50
68% range
8–14
−28.1% / +25.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 6.52 | −43.6% |
| 16% | 8.31 | −28.1% |
| 25% | 9.18 | −20.6% |
| 50% (median) | 10.98 | −5.0% |
| 75% | 13.13 | +13.6% |
| 84% | 14.46 | +25.1% |
| 95% | 19.52 | +68.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (12.14) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (12.72) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (10.98) | 50% |
| Down 10% or more (10.40) | 42% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 42%, 1.0× the 42% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.