ERAS
Erasca, Inc.After hours14.78−0.68 −4.40%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 14.78 0.00%
Open
15.25
Prev close
15.46
Day range
14.5115.58
52-week range
2.1124.28
Volume
5.03M1.13×
Mkt cap
5.17B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-23.72
EPS ttm
-0.9500
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
—
From 52w high
−39.13%
ERAS market-implied price distribution
ERAS Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 99.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 14.78
Expected price
15.04
forward 14.95
68% range
10–19
−29.0% / +31.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.48 | −42.6% |
| 16% | 10.49 | −29.0% |
| 25% | 11.55 | −21.8% |
| 50% (median) | 14.12 | −4.4% |
| 75% | 17.41 | +17.8% |
| 84% | 19.37 | +31.1% |
| 95% | 25.25 | +70.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (15.52) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (16.26) | 32% |
| Down 5% or more (14.04) | 49% |
| Down 10% or more (13.30) | 42% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 42%, 1.0× the 42% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.