ELIL
Direxion Daily LLY Bull 2X ETFOpen27.91−0.82 −2.85%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 15m delay
Open
29.00
Prev close
28.73
Day range
27.5029.16
52-week range
16.3435.13
Volume
37.17K0.44×
P/E ttm
39.05
EPS ttm
0.7148
Div yield
1.32%
From 52w high
−20.55%
ELIL market-implied price distribution
ELIL Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 77.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 27.91
Expected price
27.69
forward 27.80
68% range
21–34
−25.2% / +22.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 15.95 | −42.9% |
| 16% | 20.88 | −25.2% |
| 25% | 22.94 | −17.8% |
| 50% (median) | 27.10 | −2.9% |
| 75% | 31.68 | +13.5% |
| 84% | 34.27 | +22.8% |
| 95% | 41.18 | +47.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (29.31) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (30.70) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (26.51) | 46% |
| Down 10% or more (25.12) | 37% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 37%, 1.0× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.