ELF
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.Open107.32−2.62 −2.38%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 11:49 ET · 20m delay
Open
109.09
Prev close
109.94
Day range
106.88110.00
52-week range
48.82141.50
Volume
223.47K0.12×
Mkt cap
6.33B
P/E ttm
109.51
Fwd P/E
27.76
EPS ttm
0.9800
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−24.16%
ELF market-implied price distribution
ELF Price at Expiry
28 OTM quotes · ATM IV 70.9%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 107.32
Expected price
107.72
forward 108.28
68% range
86–129
−20.0% / +20.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 69.06 | −35.7% |
| 16% | 85.84 | −20.0% |
| 25% | 93.07 | −13.3% |
| 50% (median) | 106.63 | −0.6% |
| 75% | 120.87 | +12.6% |
| 84% | 128.91 | +20.1% |
| 95% | 149.51 | +39.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (112.69) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (118.05) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (101.95) | 41% |
| Down 10% or more (96.59) | 31% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 31%, 0.9× the 33% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.