Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
39.02
−29.4%
16%
47.38
−14.3%
25%
49.97
−9.6%
50% (median)
54.64
−1.1%
75%
59.47
+7.6%
84%
62.23
+12.6%
95%
71.84
+30.0%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (58.02)
31%
Up 10% or more (60.79)
20%
Down 5% or more (52.50)
38%
Down 10% or more (49.73)
24%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 24%, 1.1× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.