Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
19.90
−46.8%
16%
24.74
−33.9%
25%
28.30
−24.4%
50% (median)
37.78
+1.0%
75%
46.93
+25.4%
84%
49.84
+33.2%
95%
54.39
+45.3%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (39.29)
46%
Up 10% or more (41.16)
41%
Down 5% or more (35.55)
44%
Down 10% or more (33.68)
39%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 39%, 0.9× the 43% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.