ECG
Everus Construction Group, Inc.Open116.61−3.44 −2.87%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 13:40 ET · 20m delay
Open
117.44
Prev close
120.05
Day range
114.77120.35
52-week range
78.14171.58
Volume
167.29K0.33×
Mkt cap
5.95B
P/E ttm
23.46
Fwd P/E
18.54
EPS ttm
4.97
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
From 52w high
−32.04%
ECG market-implied price distribution
ECG Price at Expiry
28 OTM quotes · ATM IV 57.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 116.61
Expected price
120.66
forward 119.50
68% range
95–140
−18.9% / +19.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 54.77 | −53.0% |
| 16% | 94.56 | −18.9% |
| 25% | 102.45 | −12.1% |
| 50% (median) | 114.95 | −1.4% |
| 75% | 129.14 | +10.8% |
| 84% | 139.68 | +19.8% |
| 95% | 217.76 | +86.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (122.44) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (128.27) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (110.77) | 41% |
| Down 10% or more (104.94) | 29% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 29%, 1.1× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.