EC
Ecopetrol S.A.Open17.46+0.23 +1.33%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 13:43 ET · 20m delay
Open
17.32
Prev close
17.23
Day range
17.2317.66
52-week range
8.5718.38
Volume
868.28K0.49×
Mkt cap
35.89B
P/E ttm
9.49
Fwd P/E
9.26
EPS ttm
1.84
Div yield
3.77%
Earnings
Aug 3, 2026
From 52w high
−5.01%
EC market-implied price distribution
EC Price at Expiry
18 OTM quotes · ATM IV 36.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 17.46
Expected price
17.98
forward 17.48
68% range
16–19
−8.6% / +11.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 14.54 | −16.7% |
| 16% | 15.96 | −8.6% |
| 25% | 16.51 | −5.5% |
| 50% (median) | 17.55 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 18.69 | +7.0% |
| 84% | 19.40 | +11.1% |
| 95% | 23.94 | +37.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (18.33) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (19.21) | 18% |
| Down 5% or more (16.59) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (15.71) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 0.7× the 20% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.