Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
21.25
−22.2%
16%
25.21
−7.7%
25%
26.09
−4.5%
50% (median)
27.41
+0.3%
75%
28.65
+4.8%
84%
29.36
+7.4%
95%
32.26
+18.0%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (28.70)
24%
Up 10% or more (30.06)
11%
Down 5% or more (25.96)
23%
Down 10% or more (24.60)
12%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 12%, 1.7× the 7.2% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.