DORM
Dorman Products, Inc.After hours123.34+1.35 +1.11%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 123.34 0.00%
Open
122.94
Prev close
121.99
Day range
121.39123.82
52-week range
98.45164.00
Volume
276.01K1.08×
Mkt cap
3.66B
P/E ttm
17.11
Fwd P/E
13.41
EPS ttm
7.21
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 26, 2026
From 52w high
−24.79%
DORM market-implied price distribution
DORM Price at Expiry
21 OTM quotes · ATM IV 74.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
56%
spot 123.34
Expected price
126.71
forward 127.50
68% range
103–149
−16.4% / +20.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 80.00 | −35.1% |
| 16% | 103.17 | −16.4% |
| 25% | 111.54 | −9.6% |
| 50% (median) | 126.49 | +2.6% |
| 75% | 141.11 | +14.4% |
| 84% | 148.81 | +20.6% |
| 95% | 169.22 | +37.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (129.51) | 44% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (135.67) | 33% |
| Down 5% or more (117.17) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (111.01) | 24% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 24%, 0.7× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.