Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 53.23 | −26.3% |
| 16% | 62.99 | −12.8% |
| 25% | 66.29 | −8.2% |
| 50% (median) | 72.16 | −0.1% |
| 75% | 77.99 | +8.0% |
| 84% | 81.19 | +12.4% |
| 95% | 89.39 | +23.8% |
| Up 5% or more (75.82) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (79.43) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (68.60) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (64.99) | 21% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 21%, 1.0× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.