Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
17.88
−42.3%
16%
23.04
−25.6%
25%
25.38
−18.1%
50% (median)
30.36
−2.0%
75%
35.88
+15.9%
84%
38.89
+25.6%
95%
46.60
+50.5%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (32.52)
39%
Up 10% or more (34.07)
32%
Down 5% or more (29.42)
45%
Down 10% or more (27.87)
37%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 37%, 0.9× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.