DOCN
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.Open130.14−1.27 −0.97%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 11:22 ET · 20m delay
Open
125.59
Prev close
131.41
Day range
125.00133.80
52-week range
37.50187.50
Volume
645.97K0.23×
Mkt cap
15.30B
P/E ttm
59.97
Fwd P/E
70.67
EPS ttm
2.17
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
From 52w high
−30.59%
DOCN market-implied price distribution
DOCN Price at Expiry
21 OTM quotes · ATM IV 91.3%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 130.14
Expected price
130.82
forward 130.59
68% range
97–164
−25.2% / +25.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 81.09 | −37.7% |
| 16% | 97.31 | −25.2% |
| 25% | 105.79 | −18.7% |
| 50% (median) | 125.87 | −3.3% |
| 75% | 150.09 | +15.3% |
| 84% | 163.61 | +25.7% |
| 95% | 197.28 | +51.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (136.65) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (143.15) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (123.63) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (117.13) | 39% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 39%, 1.0× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.