DNA
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc.Open11.95+0.16 +1.35%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 13:45 ET · 20m delay
Open
11.79
Prev close
11.79
Day range
11.5112.45
52-week range
5.3718.22
Volume
1.03M0.55×
Mkt cap
804.62M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-4.12
EPS ttm
-5.06
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−34.42%
DNA market-implied price distribution
DNA Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 121.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 11.95
Expected price
12.15
forward 12.07
68% range
8–16
−35.4% / +36.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 5.73 | −52.1% |
| 16% | 7.71 | −35.4% |
| 25% | 8.75 | −26.8% |
| 50% (median) | 11.23 | −6.0% |
| 75% | 14.42 | +20.7% |
| 84% | 16.34 | +36.8% |
| 95% | 22.08 | +84.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (12.55) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (13.14) | 33% |
| Down 5% or more (11.35) | 51% |
| Down 10% or more (10.75) | 45% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 45%, 1.0× the 46% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.