DJT
Trump Media & Technology Group After hours7.75−0.22 −2.76%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 7.79 +0.51%
Open
7.92
Prev close
7.97
Day range
7.758.04
52-week range
6.9617.09
Volume
3.80M0.95×
Mkt cap
2.15B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
—
EPS ttm
-4.89
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 10, 2026
From 52w high
−54.65%
DJT market-implied price distribution
DJT Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 64.0%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 7.75
Expected price
7.78
forward 7.83
68% range
6–9
−20.1% / +17.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 4.45 | −42.5% |
| 16% | 6.19 | −20.1% |
| 25% | 6.81 | −12.1% |
| 50% (median) | 7.74 | −0.1% |
| 75% | 8.62 | +11.3% |
| 84% | 9.11 | +17.6% |
| 95% | 10.84 | +39.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (8.14) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (8.53) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (7.36) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (6.98) | 28% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 28%, 0.9× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.